Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 14.214559 16.261662 18.468775 21.021459 23.888507 27.005142 30.645495
2025-02-23 11.018448 13.751915 16.930311 20.883598 25.652165 31.200900 38.127656
2025-03-02 9.562066 12.617535 16.344827 21.197014 27.314117 34.734350 44.377333
2025-03-09 8.319610 11.544490 15.651580 21.219599 28.517970 37.699035 50.053734
2025-03-16 7.284748 10.568823 14.912966 21.014857 29.287554 40.024862 54.910557
2025-03-23 6.578468 9.937053 14.534296 21.199895 30.512054 42.936866 60.618290
2025-03-30 6.146197 9.627841 14.542013 21.871601 32.387181 46.763030 67.694946
2025-04-06 5.524923 8.972591 13.988616 21.680995 33.007258 48.861458 72.462786
2025-04-13 4.757378 8.015634 12.904316 20.614745 32.267184 48.967041 74.380227
2025-04-20 4.472134 7.775016 12.861872 21.077157 33.767053 52.315475 81.063035
2025-04-27 4.202912 7.531105 12.787204 21.470119 35.164158 55.556996 87.713414
2025-05-04 3.851513 7.116634 12.405835 21.344991 35.740252 57.580209 92.615060
2025-05-11 3.492754 6.663283 11.936361 21.060432 36.071463 59.283267 97.175836
2025-05-18 3.237923 6.367067 11.702407 21.140588 36.982476 61.917139 103.288342
2025-05-25 3.037961 6.147968 11.576847 21.382372 38.152480 64.988315 110.191118
2025-06-01 2.825137 5.884128 11.350730 21.430558 38.992661 67.557645 116.391828
2025-06-08 2.593051 5.560698 10.991379 21.215444 39.363228 69.365111 121.418411
2025-06-15 2.440710 5.376785 10.868106 21.404987 40.427687 72.344129 128.464047
2025-06-22 2.365749 5.339550 11.011387 22.081534 42.371122 76.862983 138.233605
2025-06-29 2.185855 5.070997 10.696820 21.889617 42.754436 78.748492 143.642770
2025-07-06 1.918622 4.592992 9.940778 20.813976 41.474154 77.708070 144.008449
2025-07-13 1.847108 4.527836 9.990829 21.280454 43.040078 81.673418 153.144298
2025-07-20 1.772476 4.448665 10.005949 21.676820 44.489985 85.485691 162.148035